TASS: Experts predict COVID-19 incidence rates in Russia to decrease to 25,000 by autumn
The number of new COVID-19 cases registered per day in Russia may decrease from 33,000 to 25,000 by the beginning of the academic year, given the decreasing COVID-19 trend persists. This has been reported to the Russian news agency TASS by the Head of the Intelligent Logistics Centre at St Petersburg University Victor Zakharov.
According to the Federal Emergency Response Centre on preventing the import and spread of the novel coronavirus disease in Russia, Russia’s COVID-19 case tally rose by 33,061 over the past day. The day before, there were 39,669 new COVID-19 cases registered in the country. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Russia has seen a total of 19,150,404 cases of COVID-19.
‘If the recent downward trend in the daily number of new COVID-19 cases registered in Russia continues over the next fortnight, the number of active cases will come down to the 500,000 level by 1 September 2022, continuing to go down. Should such a trend persist, COVID-19 incidence rates may drop to 24,000-25,000 cases per day,’ Victor Zakharov said.
He also said that in a pessimistic scenario, a new rise in the COVID-19 incidence rates in Russia will begin over the next few days. Should this be the case, on 1 September 2022, the daily increase in COVID-19 cases may again reach the 40,000 level mark, while the number of active cases may exceed 600,000. The figures for the latter are currently 459,900 cases, Victor Zakharov specified.
A group of experts, led by Victor Zakharov, developed a mathematical model CIR — Confirmed cases, Infected, Removed (that is cases of death or recovery). The CIR model enables more accurate forecasting of dynamics in coronavirus proliferation for up to one month.