Valdai Discussion Club: Sharp turns and continuity in Donald Trump’s policy
The first steps of President Donald Trump have caused a wave of comments, assumptions and guesses. Yet, his policy, undoubtedly different from the policy of his predecessors, is not as unpredictable as it may seem at first glance and comprises significant elements of continuity, believes Konstantin Khudoley, Professor of the School of International Relations at St Petersburg University.
Trump’s decisive actions are quite understandable. Three presidential elections have already shown that his policies are supported by tens of millions and his return to the White House is not an accident, but a reflection of new trends in the evolution of American society. Now he has a programme. Everything he does reflects his pre-election statements. He could consolidate the Republican Party. The personal factor also plays an important role. Trump has only one term to go down in history as a great president, which he undoubtedly dreams of. Finally, he has significantly fewer checks and balances, both within the country (the Republicans have a majority in Congress, the majority of the Supreme Court members also share Trump’s views), and in the international arena: the old world order that emerged after the end of the Cold War is experiencing a deep crisis, and the elements of a new one are taking shape rather slowly.
Trump’s policies have essential features that were previously present in the Republican platform. Twenty or thirty years ago, it was hard to imagine that the problem of illegal immigration would become so pressing in the United States, in a country created by migrants and their descendants. However, in some cases, when it comes to, say, increasing the efficiency of the state apparatus, the element of continuity is essential. The department headed by Elon Musk has the same functions as the committee created by Ronald Reagan when he was the governor of California and then the president of the United States. The difference, perhaps, is that now the head of this structure is the richest man on the planet and the degree of his influence on state affairs and his activity in the media space is incomparably more significant.
Trump certainly takes into account the positions of Russia, China and some other countries. Yet, he seeks to take full advantage of the existing uncertainty in world affairs to strengthen the position of the United States.
The main idea of Trump’s slogan "Make America Great Again" is to once again turn the United States into an undisputed dominant power in the international arena. The continuity of Trump’s and Reagan’s approaches, i.e. "peace through strength", is undeniable, and the differences are only in individual formulations. However, the emphasis is not on the development of international cooperation even with the closest allies and partners, but on solving any problems exclusively in the interests of the United States, regardless of how others feel about it. It is impossible to agree with the opinion of some experts that Trump’s policy is a return to isolationism and that the United States wants to withdraw into itself or, at most, into the Western Hemisphere.
On the contrary, the US under Trump will seek to create a basis for a significant restructuring of international relations under its dominance. Other models and schemes do not suit them.
In this context, it is obviously worth considering Musk’s attempts to support the Reform Party in the UK, the Alternative for Germany and some other far-right forces.
The style of communication between Trump and his entourage and international politicians attracts our special attention. It is very reminiscent of Jules Verne’s story "The Day of an American Journalist in 2889". Trump’s provocative statements have different goals. When he talks about Canada joining the United States as the 51st state, he most likely seeks not only economic benefits, but also the defeat of the Liberal Party in the upcoming parliamentary elections and the coming to power of politicians close to his views. Washington is unlikely to count on the victory of the Alternative for Germany in the upcoming Bundestag elections, but, showing sympathy for it, they are pushing the most likely winner, the CDU/CSU, to shift to the right. Yet, the likelihood of revising the Panama Canal Treaty and changing the status of Greenland is rather high. The issue of abandoning the treaty with Panama was discussed back in the early 1980s in the Reagan administration, and US claims to Greenland have a very long history. In other words, Trump, in many ways, continues the line of his predecessors, albeit in a very tough, sometimes simply defiant form.
Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to resolve the conflict in the Ukraine and improve relations with our country. However, it seems that his policy is largely based on the ideas of the Reagan era, i.e. to achieve superiority in the sphere of weapons and to exhaust our country’s economy with economic sanctions. For example, the plans to build the Iron Dome for America are very reminiscent of Reagan’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI), known as the Star Wars programme. There are no signs of easing the sanctions yet. However, the situation of the early 1980s is unlikely to repeat. The world has changed, and it is impossible to step into the same river twice.
Yet, two points that give some hope for an improvement in our relations cannot be ignored. Trump’s statements contain clear hints of a willingness to discuss with Russia not only the issue of settling the military conflict in the Ukraine, but also, which seems important, a broader range of issues. In our opinion, the current confrontation is developing in several planes (e.g. military actions in the Ukraine, and sanctions to name just a few), which are interconnected but have their own logic and dynamics. Therefore, the settlement will most likely resemble the Westphalian system of 1648, which consisted of several treaties based on common principles, but which were signed by different states and were not formally connected with each other. This formula may also be accepted now, since it is possible to involve states that are not directly involved in the confrontation in settling a number of problems.
2025 is the 80th anniversary of the Great Victory, and the public in our country is very sensitive to any nuances in statements on this topic. Not everything that Trump has said about it we can agree with. However, it would be wrong not to see his differences from many other Western politicians. To some extent, he is a successor to Winston Churchill, who in one of his last speeches emphasised that he had always spoken respectfully of Russia and the Russian people, and used the word ‘Soviets’ for negativity. Trump also does not accept communism, but respects our country and people. This is especially evident against the backdrop of the European Parliament resolution of 25 January 2025, which is not just different, but has the opposite spirit and mode.
It is difficult to predict when the Russia-USA summit will take place. Such an event requires very careful and serious preparation, including the creation of a certain public atmosphere. Much is at stake. Successful negotiations can give impetus to improving the international situation, while confrontation can lead to its further deterioration.