The Valdai Discussion Club: Finland, Sweden, and NATO: the process is afoot
The confrontation between Russia and the West is at its initial stage, and the process of consolidating the positions of both opposing sides is well underway. Among the most obvious manifestations of this process is that Finland and Sweden have formally requested to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, said Konstantin Khudoley, Professor at the School of International Relations at St Petersburg University. The consequences of accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO for the future development of international relations both in Europe and beyond can be very significant.
The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO will definitely help strengthen NATO. Both Finland and Sweden have a developed economy; a high standard of living; effective public administration; modern armed forces (importantly, Sweden also has a large military industry); and a good international reputation. This stimulates other neutral states of Europe and some countries outside the North Atlantic region to join NATO. Switzerland has already requested to join NATO, too. The trend towards NATO becoming a global treaty is likely to intensify. Today, it is far from being possible to tell which countries will want to join NATO and which of them NATO will be ready to accept into its membership. Yet, what we can predict with a high degree of certainty is that joining NATO and pros and cons of this step will be scrutinised in a number of countries of the post-Soviet space, the Middle East, and Brussels. Most likely, the current expansion of NATO will not be the last.
NATO is a military-political union. Joining NATO means accepting certain obligations. Yet, the whole picture is far from being clear. For example, there are no nuclear weapons and no foreign military bases in Norway. Most likely, Sweden and Finland will choose a similar model, although the appearance of some NATO military facilities in Finland is not excluded. NATO will definitely hold exercises in Finland, Sweden, and in the parts of the Baltic Sea adjacent to Finland and Sweden. The issue of the Åland Islands, which have had a demilitarised status for many years, is unclear. What is even more important is that the armed forces of Sweden and Finland, following the NATO doctrines, will consider Russia as the main threat.
In the political sphere, the situation for Russia will undoubtedly change to a less favourable side. Russia has no territorial disputes with Sweden and Finland. It is unlikely that politicians who call for a revision of the border established by the peace treaty of 1947 and confirmed by the treaty of 1992 will be able to come to power in Finland. However, the atmosphere on the border, which for many years has been distinguished by goodwill, may change. In the Baltic Sea and the Arctic Ocean, Russia will be the only non-NATO member state. Presumably, the West will try to use this to establish its own rules of the game. The room for manoeuvres is rather limited.