Political analysts from St Petersburg University discuss the history of Ukraine-Russia conflict with colleagues from Argentina
Experts from St Petersburg University have participated in the online conference ‘Russia and Ukraine: an international outlook on the conflict’. The conference was organised by the Catholic University of La Plata in Argentina (La Universidad Católica de La Plata) to provide a forum for constructive debates with the participation of representatives of civil society, academe and business associations.
The conference was attended by: Mariano Caucino, Professor of Modern History and Foreign Policy at the Catholic University of La Plata, former Argentina’s Ambassador to Israel (2017–2019) and Costa Rica (2016–2017); Marcelo Montes, Professor in the Institute of the Foreign Service of the Nation (ISEN), member of the Eurasian research group of the Argentine Council for Foreign Relations (CARI); and Alberto Hutschenreuter, Professor in the Institute of Foreign Service of the Nation (ISEN) and former Professor at the Air Force Command Academy of Argentina (Escuela Superior de Guerra Aérea (ESGA), author of numerous books on Russian geopolitics. The Russian side was represented by political scientists from St Petersburg University: Viktor Kheifets, Professor in the Department of Theory and History of International Relations; Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor in the Department of European Studies; and Artem Barynkin, Associate Professor in the Department of European Studies.
Artem Barynkin made a keynote presentation "The Ukrainian crisis in the context of NATO’s eastward expansion".
What is happening in Ukraine cannot be viewed as an isolated conflict between the two countries. What we are witnessing today are, indeed, global-scale problems. The existing system of international relations is undergoing fundamental changes. In fact, the Ukrainian crisis is one of the many critical nodes whose failure can lead to collapse of the system of international relations.
Artem Barynkin, Associate Professor in the Department of European Studies at St Petersburg University
Artem Barynkin noted that the root causes of the current conflict lie in US policy and NATO expansion to the east. He presented the chronology of the accession to the North Atlantic Alliance of seven Central and Eastern European countries. In 1990, NATO Secretary General, Manfred Wörner, said in his speech: ‘The very fact that we are ready not to deploy NATO troops beyond the territory of the Federal Republic gives the Soviet Union firm security guarantees.’ Nonetheless, the assurances that were not backed by signed documents were subsequently breached many times. Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined NATO in 1999; Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004; Albania and Croatia in 2009; Montenegro in 2017; and Northern Macedonia in 2020. ‘None of the verbal assurances worked. The bombings and the destruction of the statehood of Yugoslavia and Libya could never convince Russian politicians that NATO is a defence alliance,’ stressed Artem Barynkin. ‘Moscow’s main concern, however, was the plans for NATO enlargement to include Georgia (2008) and Ukraine.’ Despite the fact that under the current circumstances, Ukraine’s prospects of joining NATO appear impossible, the United States has never lost interest in Ukraine. This is evidenced by: the tender announced in 2013 for the conversion of a school in Sevastopol into an engineering facility for the US Navy and the deployment of American intelligence services in the main building of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in 2016. Also, there is further evidence, revealed in 2022, of the US Department of Defense’s role in the development of biological weapon components in Ukraine.
The failure of the dialogue model in resolving the Ukrainian crisis attests to the specifics of the processes taking place in Ukraine since 2014. The collapse of the Yalta-Potsdam world order — just as the change of any known system of international relations — involves a whole series of conflicts and confrontations between Russia and the collective West.
Artem Barynkin, Associate Professor in the Department of European Studies at St Petersburg University
When discussing the UN General Assembly resolution on Ukraine, almost all countries — strategic partners of the USA, including Brazil and Argentina, voted to deplore Russia’s "aggression against Ukraine". Nonetheless, not a single Latin American state has announced that it is ready to join US-led sanctions on Russia. Viktor Kheifets, Professor in the Department of Theory and History of International Relations at St Petersburg University, spoke about this at the meeting. ‘For years, we have been building partnerships with the Latin Americans on the principle of multilateralism, and in their eyes we differed from the United States by advocating diplomatic resolutions to conflicts. Now, in order to negotiate an agreement on anything, we will have to reformulate the foundation of our policy in Latin America regarding issues and topics that are relevant for both partners,’ remarked Viktor Kheifets. ‘The topic of the post-Soviet space is not very interesting for them in the context of building relations with us. They assign a higher priority to a politically multipolar world. For this, however, we will need to prove again that we have the same understanding of this concept and rely on diplomacy in conflict resolution.’
Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor in the Department of European Studies at St Petersburg University and Head of the master’s programme in Diplomacy of the Russian Federation and Foreign States, noted that the Ukrainian crisis is a global-scale problem that affects all spheres of international communication. Until the crisis has been resolved, it would be premature to draw any conclusions about its consequences on the global security architecture even though in some areas its impact can already be observed.
The sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation in record time have negatively affected the Russian economy, indeed. However, the economic impact of the sanctions will not last long due to active measures that are being taken to reorient trade, economic and technological partnerships towards states in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and other regions across the globe.
Professor Stanislav Tkachenko, Head of the master's programme "Diplomacy of the Russian Federation and Foreign States", St Petersburg University
‘The relations between Russia and the United States, the EU and other countries — that’s about 40 countries in total — appear to remain strained for decades to come. We have already entered the period of a "new Cold War", and we can only hope that any further escalation of tension and conflict will be averted,’ said Stanislav Tkachenko.
During the conference, the keynote speakers offered an assessment of the current international situation from the perspectives of the largest countries affected by the crisis and analysed the consequences of the conflict for its participants and main stakeholders: the United States; China; the European Union; India; and Japan.
After the keynote presentations, an open discussion of the relevant issues was held. At the discussion, students and graduates of the Catholic University of La Plata, social activists, experts and members of the general public had the opportunity to address questions to political scientists from St Petersburg University. During the conference, the Argentine side expressed confidence that Russia would emerge victorious in the current conflict. According to Professor Marcelo Montes, ‘Mr Putin will win because he cannot but win.’ Expressing his point of view, Professor Alberto Hutchenreuther underlined that the use of military force was unacceptable; yet, the escalation of the conflict was predictable, since it was instigated by the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West and the ongoing eastward expansion of NATO. It was bound to prompt a response from Russia sooner or later.